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301110, 05:02 PM  #1 
الصفة: عضو جديد
تاريخ التسجيل: Nov 2010
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طلب مساعده في مسئلة رياضيات
السلام عليكم
ارجوكم عندي مسائل رياضيات ومب عارفه شي توني ادرس بالصين واعطوني مسائل وصديقتي قالت لي دشي هذا الموقع وبيساعدونك هذي هي المسائل حاولت اترجمها بس الترجمه مدري كيف [align=left]Task Type1: analysis and conclusion: Every student is required to answer one of the following questions. Whether or not you agree with the conclusion or method proposed, you must give your reasons for or against. Except for some intuitive explanation, it will be much better if you write out your logical and numerical analysis, in details if in need, based on the definitions, properties, formulae in probability theory. Topic1: The following data were given in a study of a group of 1000 subscribers to a certain magazine. In reference to job, marital status, and education, there were 312 professionals, 470 married persons, 525 college graduates, 42 professional college graduates, 147 married college graduates, 86 married professionals, and 25 married professional college graduates. Do you think that the numbers reported in the study must be correct? Topic2: The following method was proposed to estimate the number of people over the age of 50 that reside in a town of known population 100,000. “ As you walk along the streets, keep a running count of the percentage of people that you encounter who are over 50. Do this for a few days; then multiply the obtained percentage by 100,000 to obtain the estimate. Comment on this method. Topic3: Three prisoners are informed by their jailer that one of them has been chosen at random to be executed, and the other two are to be free. Prisoner A asks the jailer to tell him privately which of his fellow prisoners will be set free, claiming that there would be no harm in divulging this information because he already knows that at least one of the two of his fellow prisoners will go free. The jailer refuses to answer this question, pointing out that if A knew which of his fellow prisoners were to be set free, then his own probability of being executed would rise from 1/3 to 1/2 because he then would be one of two prisoners. What do you think of the jailer’s reason? Task Type2: computation and Decision Ever student is required to solve one of the following problems. In order to answer the questions asked, you have to do some calculations to decide the conditional probabilities. You must first well define events involved and then use suitable formulae of events and probabilities. You also need to state the reasons at each step why you can use those formulae. Explain your computation result medically. For each problem, one student will be selected at random to report his/her to the class. Therefore, he/she has to prepare a PPT exhibiting his/her own work in a manner he/she likes. Each speaker shall have 15 minutes to talk and an additional 5 minutes for answering questions that the class may ask. After the presentation, the class will give the three students marks for ranking them. Then, students who are in the same group of one of the speakers will have the same mark as he/she does. Problem1: In answering a multiplechoice test, a student either knows the answer or guesses. Let p be the probability that the student knows the answer and 1p the probability that the student guesses. Assume that a student who guesses at the answer will be correct with the probability 1/m, where m is the number of multiplechoice alternatives. What is the conditional probability that a student knew the answer to the question, given that he or she answered it correctly? Problem2: A laboratory test is 95% effectives in detecting a certain disease when it is, in fact, present. However, the test also yields a “false positive” result for 1% of the healthy persons tested. (That is, if a healthy person is tested, then, with probability of 0.01, the test result will imply that he or she has the disease.) If 0.5% of the population actually has the disease, what is the probability a person has the disease given that the test result is positive? Problem3: Consider a medical practitioner pondering the following dilemma: “if I am at least 80% certain that my patient has this disease, then I always recommend surgery, whereas if I am not quite as certain, then I recommend additional tests that are expensive and sometimes painful. Now initially I was 60% certain that Jones had this disease, so I ordered the series A test, which always gives a positive result when the patient has the disease almost never does when he is healthy. The test result was positive, so I was all set to recommend surgery when Jones informed me, for the first time, that he is a diabetic. This information complicates matters because, although it doesn’t change my original 60% estimate of his chance of having the disease, it does affect the interpretation of the result of the A test. This is so because the A test, while never yielding a positive result when the patient is healthy, does unfortunately yield a positive result 30% of the time in the case of diabetic patient not suffering from the disease. Now what do I do? More tests or immediate surgery?” (Hint: you need to calculate the probability that Jones has the disease given that his A test result is positive[/align] 
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